300 
AXPZ20 KNHC 220401
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Fri Aug 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W from north of 06N. It is 
moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is described 
below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. Looking ahead, an 
area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend off the 
coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear 
conducive for some gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression could form during the early or middle 
portions of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward
off the coast of Mexico. This system has a medium chance for 
development in the next 7 days.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W from 06N to 18N moving
westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is within 120 nm west of the wave from 13N to 15N. Scattered
moderate convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 13N to
15N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 129W from 05N to 19N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Only isolated showers are along and near 
the axis from 10N to 14N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure of 1010 mb 
over northern Colombia near 10N75W, west-southwest to 09N83W
to 10N92W to 10N110W to 11N120W and to beyond 12N140W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is seen within 120 nm 
south of the trough between 94W-98W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 
100W-107W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from high pressure north of the area to the 
Revillagigedo Islands, with a surface trough over the Gulf of 
California. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate
northwest breezes and moderate seas off Baja California. Light 
to gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere off 
southern Mexico. Gentle winds and slight seas are over the Gulf 
of California. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge west of 
the Baja California peninsula and a trough over the Gulf of 
California will support gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate
seas west of the Baja peninsula through early next week. Gentle 
to moderate winds will develop in the Gulf of California early 
next week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in southwest
swell will persist across the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters north of 05N 
while gentle to moderate winds are noted south of 05N. Moderate 
seas prevail across the discussion waters.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds will prevail across the 
waters north of about 07N through the weekend, except for 
moderate to locally fresh winds pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo 
at night starting tonight. Gentle to moderate winds are expected 
south of 05N. Winds become light to gentle over most of the 
waters south of northern Costa Rica early next week. Cross- 
equatorial southerly swell will propagate across the regional 
waters keeping seas in the moderate range through Fri, except in 
the lee of the Galapagos Islands, where slight seas are expected.
Another round of large swell will move into the waters off 
Ecuador and Colombia by late Fri, and reach the offshore waters 
of Central America by Sun. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails north of 20N. The pressure gradient 
resulting from the combination of the high pressure and 
lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate 
to fresh trades north of the monsoon trough to near 22N and west
of 125W as noted in the latest scatterometer satellite data 
passes over that part of the area. Seas over these waters are in
the 6 to 8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4 to 
7 ft, prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to 
fresh winds, and seas of 6 to 7 ft, are south of the monsoon 
trough and west of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds, and combined 
seas of 6 to 8 ft in southerly swell, prevail elsewhere south of
the monsoon trough.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place through the
weekend with little change to current conditions expected. 

$$
Aguirre