Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 22 2025 - 00Z Sun Aug 24 2025

...Tropical Storm conditions continue for the North Carolina Outer Banks
and coastal Virginia tonight; tropical storm force gusts possible for the
remainder of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England Coasts into
Friday...

...Life-threatening surf and rip currents will be churning up and down the
East Coast through the next couple of days...

...Thunderstorms expected along a stalling cold front across portions of
the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Texas, with a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall for portions of Georgia and South Carolina Friday...

...Dangerous heat wave building over the western U.S. late this week and
into the weekend...

Several areas along the coast are under a tropical storm watch, storm
surge warning, and coastal flood warning as Hurricane Erin continues to
trek northeastward along the East Coast. Erin will continue to bring
strong gusty to tropical storm force winds along the North Carolina Outer
Banks and northward along the Mid-Atlantic Coast through the coast of
southern New England tonight through Friday. In addition, storm surges can
bring large waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, and
some roads may become impassible. Hazardous beach conditions,
life-threatening surf, and rip currents will remain a serious concern more
broadly along the East Coast and will likely last through at least the
next couple of days. Beachgoers should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.

A cold front over the northern Plains continues to slowly push
east/southeast, bringing chances for some scattered thunderstorms across
the northern Plains into the upper Midwest this evening into tonight.
There is a chance of hail and gusty winds developing with these storms as
midlevels exhibit favorable instability and shear. Chances for scattered
thunderstorms will gradually move into the Great Lakes by Friday, as the
cold front slowly moves eastward. These storms will progress towards the
Great Lakes. Another slow moving front heading into the south-central U.S.
continues to bring chances for scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front.
With ample amount of moisture in the upper levels and chances for
2-3"/hour of rainfall rates, parts of the Texas through the Southeast and
Southern Appalachians have been highlighted for Marginal Risk of Excessive
Rainfall, which can lead to possible flash flooding. The front over the
southeast will become stationary by Friday, bringing a higher chance for
scattered thunderstormms along the boundary. Therefore, Georgia and
southern parts of South Carolina is under an Slight Risk for Excessive
Rainfall for Friday. Over western U.S. elevated monsoonal moisture will
continue to trigger afternoon thunderstorms across portions of the
Southwest/Four Corners region tonight and expand into the central Rockies
Friday. Locally intense downpours could produce a quick 1-2" of rain which
may lead to some isolated flash flooding, particularly for more sensitive
areas such as along steep terrain, burn scars, and urban areas.

A strong upper-level high continues to bring the chances for dangerous
heat over much of the western U.S. the next couple of days and will
continue into the weekend. Parts of the western U.S. will be under a Major
HeatRisk through the weekend, with isolated areas experiencing Extreme
HeatRisk conditions. Widespread heat-related warnings and advisories are
in effect across much of inland California/Oregon and Nevada as highs
climb into the 90s and 100s, and across the Desert Southwest as highs
climb into the 110s. This dangerous level of heat will pose a threat to
anyone without effective cooling and adequate hydration.  Highs into the
90s more broadly across the West will still pose a threat to anyone more
sensitive to heat or engaging in strenuous outdoor activities. By the end
of the weekend, temperatures over central to southern western U.S. begin
to cool but Northern Pacific will continue to experience above normal
temperatures into the work-week. Otherwise, a cold front will bring below
average temperatures over the northern Plain into the upper Midwest with
temperatures mostly in the 70s on Friday.

Oudit/Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php