Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2025

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 22 2025 - 00Z Sun Aug 24 2025

...Tropical Storm conditions continue for the North Carolina Outer
Banks and coastal Virginia tonight; tropical storm force gusts
possible for the remainder of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New
England Coasts into Friday...

...Life-threatening surf and rip currents will be churning up and
down the East Coast through the next couple of days...

...Thunderstorms expected along a stalling cold front across
portions of the Southeast, Gulf Coast, and Texas, with a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall for portions of Georgia and South
Carolina Friday...

...Dangerous heat wave building over the western U.S. late this
week and into the weekend...

Several areas along the coast are under a tropical storm watch,
storm surge warning, and coastal flood warning as Hurricane Erin
continues to trek northeastward along the East Coast. Erin will
continue to bring strong gusty to tropical storm force winds along
the North Carolina Outer Banks and northward along the
Mid-Atlantic Coast through the coast of southern New England
tonight through Friday. In addition, storm surges can bring large
waves, leading to significant beach erosion and overwash, and some
roads may become impassible. Hazardous beach conditions,
life-threatening surf, and rip currents will remain a serious
concern more broadly along the East Coast and will likely last
through at least the next couple of days. Beachgoers should follow
advice from lifeguards, local authorities, and beach warning flags.

A cold front over the northern Plains continues to slowly push
east/southeast, bringing chances for some scattered thunderstorms
across the northern Plains into the upper Midwest this evening
into tonight. There is a chance of hail and gusty winds developing
with these storms as midlevels exhibit favorable instability and
shear. Chances for scattered thunderstorms will gradually move
into the Great Lakes by Friday, as the cold front slowly moves
eastward. These storms will progress towards the Great Lakes.
Another slow moving front heading into the south-central U.S.
continues to bring chances for scattered thunderstorms ahead of
the front. With ample amount of moisture in the upper levels and
chances for 2-3"/hour of rainfall rates, parts of the Texas
through the Southeast and Southern Appalachians have been
highlighted for Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall, which can
lead to possible flash flooding. The front over the southeast will
become stationary by Friday, bringing a higher chance for
scattered thunderstormms along the boundary. Therefore, Georgia
and southern parts of South Carolina is under an Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall for Friday. Over western U.S. elevated
monsoonal moisture will continue to trigger afternoon
thunderstorms across portions of the Southwest/Four Corners region
tonight and expand into the central Rockies Friday. Locally
intense downpours could produce a quick 1-2" of rain which may
lead to some isolated flash flooding, particularly for more
sensitive areas such as along steep terrain, burn scars, and urban
areas.

A strong upper-level high continues to bring the chances for
dangerous heat over much of the western U.S. the next couple of
days and will continue into the weekend. Parts of the western U.S.
will be under a Major HeatRisk through the weekend, with isolated
areas experiencing Extreme HeatRisk conditions. Widespread
heat-related warnings and advisories are in effect across much of
inland California/Oregon and Nevada as highs climb into the 90s
and 100s, and across the Desert Southwest as highs climb into the
110s. This dangerous level of heat will pose a threat to anyone
without effective cooling and adequate hydration.  Highs into the
90s more broadly across the West will still pose a threat to
anyone more sensitive to heat or engaging in strenuous outdoor
activities. By the end of the weekend, temperatures over central
to southern western U.S. begin to cool but Northern Pacific will
continue to experience above normal temperatures into the
work-week. Otherwise, a cold front will bring below average
temperatures over the northern Plain into the upper Midwest with
temperatures mostly in the 70s on Friday.

Oudit/Putnam

	
Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php