Real or Not: Why each WNBA contender can make the playoffs
The WNBA regular season ends in three weeks, but there's still plenty to be decided before the playoffs open Sept. 14.
Who's in? So far, the Minnesota Lynx are the lone team to clinch one of eight postseason berths. Who's out? The Connecticut Sun were eliminated from the playoff race Sunday, and the Dallas WingsandChicago Skywere ousted Tuesday.
From there, the standings feature a cluster of teams vying for home-court advantage or one of the final playoff berths. Just six games separate the second-place New York Liberty from the 10th-place Washington Mystics.
Which teams are best positioned to find their stride before the regular-season finales on Sept. 11? Which squads are looking shaky down the stretch? ESPN breaks down what's for real and what's not for each of the 10 teams (realistically) still in the playoff race.
Jump to: ATL | GS | IND | LV | LA | MIN |NY | PHO | SEA | WAS
THE FAVORITE
Minnesota Lynx
Real or Not: Minnesota will lose only one playoff game.
Minnesota has six losses this season, not counting in the Commissioner's Cup final, and none have come back-to-back. Getting through the opening round and the semifinals unscathed? We can see that. But making it through what's now a best-of-seven WNBA Finals -- a 2-2-1-1-1 structure, in which the higher seed would host Games 1, 2, 5 and 7 -- with just one loss?
Can the Lynx shrink the Finals to the equivalent of the former five-game series? It's possible: They are 17-1 at home this season, again not counting the Cup loss to Indiana on July 1. Their regular-season loss at Target Center was to Atlanta on July 27.
Verdict: Not real. It's more likely the Lynx will drop as many as three postseason games, the first of which we predict will come in the semifinals. Then the Finals can take on a life of their own. We'll say Minnesota wins that series in six games. -- Michael Voepel
VYING FOR HOME COURT
New York Liberty
Real or Not: New York will fall to the 4-seed and face Minnesota in the WNBA semifinals.
The Liberty are 5-7 since Breanna Stewart was sidelined with a bone bruise on July 30 and briefly dropped to third in the standings behind Atlanta. With Phoenix and surging Las Vegas right behind them, the defending champs looked in danger of dropping even further, the possibility of a 1-seed vs. 4-seed semifinal series against Minnesota looming.
Verdict: Not real. Tuesday's game against Atlanta will be massive in trying to ward off the Dream for the 2-seed, but New York has a fairly forgiving schedule beyond that, with just three of its nine games remaining against teams above .500. And with Stewart targeting a return date before her Aug. 27 birthday, help is on the way. Without Stewart or Jonquel Jones, the Liberty have been vulnerable, but with both -- alongside Sabrina Ionescu -- they have proved time and again to be special. -- Alexa Philippou
Atlanta Dream
Real or Not: The Dream have found more success with Griner coming off the bench
Brittney Griner's absence at the start of August allowed Atlanta to move Naz Hillmon into the starting lineup, giving the Dream better floor balance than when they started the 6-foot-8 Griner with Brionna Jones.
After winning in Hillmon's first five starts, Atlanta dropped two of the past three games on a difficult six-game West Coast trip. The Dream's lineups with Hillmon have still outscored opponents by 44 points since she became a starter.
Griner has also looked more comfortable in a reserve role since returning to the lineup on Aug. 10. After a quiet first game, Griner has averaged 11.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 1.8 BPG in just 18.9 MPG over the past four, shooting 60% from the field. Using this net points metric, ESPN's Dean Oliver found that Griner is one of the five WNBA players most improved coming off the bench relative to production as a starter.
Verdict: Real. Starting Hillmon always loomed as the endgame for Atlanta come playoff time. Griner's neck injury had the silver lining of allowing the Dream to get there early. -- Kevin Pelton
Phoenix Mercury
Real or Not: The Mercury aren't true title contenders.
Phoenix is 6-7 since July 16, losing every game in that span against New York, Atlanta, Minnesota and Las Vegas. Can the Mercury contend for the title if they can't beat the teams battling to host early-round games?
The Mercury's game against the Aces on Thursday will have big implications on the standings. They both enter the matchup seven games behind league-leader Minnesota but just a half-game behind Atlanta and New York. But it's also an opportunity for Phoenix to put together a good game against what is arguably the hottest team in the league right now.
Verdict: Not real. Phoenix feels like it is just now rounding into form -- finally healthy and able to put together lineups and combinations the team would want to use in the postseason. Yes, the Mercury admit there's room for them to grow to be their best version. But Kahleah Copper, Satou Sabally and Alyssa Thomas have played just 14 games together this season. Once the Mercury's big three get more time alongside each other, they hope to overpower opponents with depth and endless offensive weapons. -- Kendra Andrews
Las Vegas Aces
Real or Not: Las Vegas will finish with a top-3 seed.
Las Vegas is riding a league-best eight-game winning streak, most recently picking up a massive win over Atlanta. The Aces are 22-14 and sit just behind fourth-place Phoenix (21-13); both are seven games back but the Mercury have the slight edge in winning percentage. They play Thursday night in Las Vegas; if the Aces win, they will have the better record and hold the regular-season tiebreaker over the Mercury.
A'ja Wilson is also playing some of the best basketball of the season. Since the Aces' win streak began, the three-time MVP is averaging 26.9 points and 13.1 rebounds per game.
Verdict: Not real. Las Vegas has a relatively light remaining schedule, with one game against Washington and three against Chicago. Games against the Dream and Lynx should be considered must-wins.
But the Aces need help from teams that are currently above them, particularly the Liberty and Dream. Atlanta has a difficult three-game stretch -- against Minnesota, New York and the Aces -- but then finishes the regular season against teams all below .500. And New York, as stated above, has six of its past nine games against sub-.500 teams. -- Andrews
GOOD BET TO MAKE PLAYOFFS
Golden State Valkyries
Real or Not: The Valkyries will reach the playoffs in their inaugural season but will be swept in the first round.
The Valkyries are just one game out of sixth place, and with Indiana being plagued by injuries and Seattle struggling, Golden State looks securely in the postseason -- which would mark the first time in WNBA history an expansion team makes the playoffs in its first year. Golden State closes the regular season on a tough stretch, with games against the Mercury (Friday), the Liberty (Sept. 2) and two of the final three against the Lynx. Realistically, theValkyries could finish as high as the 6-seed, but that still means a tough opponent in the first round.
Verdict: Real. This season, as the first round moves to a 1-1-1 format, Golden State would be guaranteed a home game. Golden State is 10-7 at home this season, and the magic inside Ballhalla has made Chase Center one of the hardest buildings to play in this year.
But the Valkyries will likely face the Dream, Liberty, Mercury or Aces, teams that are all peaking or getting healthier and putting together stronger basketball. They also all have playoff experience. -- Andrews
NEEDS HELP
Seattle Storm
Real or Not: The Storm struggle in the clutch.
The Storm are stuck at .500 because they've lost a league-high nine games by five points or fewer, including six of seven losses during an August skid. Even before that, Seattle wasn't excelling offensively down the stretch. According to WNBA Advanced Stats, the Storm's 44% effective field goal percentage (eFG%) in clutch situations ranks ninth.
Verdict: Partially Real. To some degree, that was predictable. Jewell Loyd was Seattle's go-to option down the stretch last year, and after trading her, the Storm are lacking in shot creation. The Storm also rank ninth in eFG% on shots that aren't potential assists, per GeniusIQ tracking -- ahead of the exact same four teams.
Still, Seattle's recent close losses have been as much about opponent shotmaking. Players have gone 7-of-13 (54%) on clutch 3s against the Storm in August. No other team that has faced at least 10 clutch 3s in the month has seen opponents make better than 42% of them. That's unlikely to continue, which should help Seattle's chances of hanging on to a playoff spot. -- Pelton
Indiana Fever
Real or not: Injuries will finally catch up to Indiana and the Fever won't make the playoffs.
The Fever certainly have their work cut out for them after losing a third guard to a season-ending injury when Sophie Cunningham tore her MCL on Sunday. But Indiana has shown a remarkable amount of resolve in the face of adversity, as evidenced by the Fever's franchise-record 21-point comeback win over Connecticut Sun this weekend.
Indiana desperately needsCaitlin Clark back, but in the meantime must see newcomers Odyssey Sims and Shey Peddy, both of whom are experienced pros, step up in the backcourt. And the Fever still rely on Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston, two of the best players in the league, to lead the charge.
Verdict: Not real. To miss the postseason, Indiana would have to really drop off down the stretch and see teams like the Sparks and Mystics catch fire over the next three weeks -- and neither group has looked particularly unstoppable.
It won't be easy, and it might go down to the wire, but we project the Fever to still find a way to eke into the playoffs. -- Philippou
Los Angeles Sparks
Real or Not: Los Angeles is the team top seeds don't want to face.
If they make the playoffs, the Sparks are going to be unusually hot for a lower seed. Since starting 6-14, Los Angeles has gone 11-4. Only the Aces have more wins in that span. The Sparks' surge has come as the team got healthy. Julie Allemand has upgraded L.A.'s playmaking as a starting point guard, while Cameron Brink and Rae Burrell have strengthened the bench.
Verdict: Not real. Staying this hot could be a challenge for the Sparks, who have ranked second in offensive rating since July 13 in large part thanks to 37% 3-point shooting. Four L.A. players (Burrell, Brink, Kelsey Plum and Azura Stevens) are shooting better than 40% beyond the arc in that span. Only Plum has previously topped that mark over a full season.
The Sparks' playoff push hit some rough waters in their past four games. Los Angeles played two tight games against struggling Dallas and lost at Washington. The Sparks are undoubtedly better than their record but probably not ready to threaten a top seed. -- Pelton
Washington Mystics
Real or Not: Washington won't make the playoffs but will help determine the top four.
Relying on rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen and with a new coaching staff led by Sydney Johnson, the Mystics were never expected to contend this season. The fact that they're still even in the playoff hunt is a win for the franchise.
But the Mystics have a tough finish: Seven of their final nine opponents are currently in playoff spots. Washington has won three of its past five games but is coming off an 11-point loss to last-place Connecticut at home Tuesday.
