Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Tuesday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 12, 2025, 07:26 AM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR TUESDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	ML	O/U	W%	IP	ER	K
13.1	Paul Skenes	R	@MIL	99.9%	EVEN	6.5	53%	5.7	2.0	6.4
12.9	Carlos Rodon	L	MIN	95.9%	-215	9.5	71%	5.8	2.3	6.3
12.6	Spencer Strider	R	@NYM	85.8%	+120	8.5	61%	5.7	2.2	6.6
11.4	Jack Flaherty	R	@CWS	77.4%	-180	8.5	58%	5.5	2.5	6.5
10.9	George Kirby	R	@BAL	85.1%	-175	9.5	60%	5.7	2.6	5.4
10.8	Freddy Peralta	R	PIT	96.1%	-120	6.5	47%	5.5	2.5	6.3
10.4	Jacob Lopez	L	TB	16.5%	-110	9.5	48%	5.3	2.2	5.5
10.2	Ranger Suarez	L	@CIN	82.2%	-155	9.5	58%	5.7	2.8	5.7
10.1	Nestor Cortes	L	@SF	15.0%	EVEN	7.5	58%	5.5	2.4	5.2
9.8	Robbie Ray	L	SD	92.0%	-120	7.5	42%	5.5	2.3	5.2
9.4	Clay Holmes	R	ATL	54.5%	-145	8.5	39%	5.2	2.0	4.7
9.0	Shane Baz	R	@ATH	34.7%	-110	9.5	52%	5.4	2.8	5.5
9.0	Dustin May	R	@HOU	15.1%	EVEN	8.5	49%	5.5	2.6	5.1
8.9	Jose Berrios	R	CHC	67.5%	-120	9.5	54%	5.6	2.8	4.9
8.8	Spencer Arrighetti	R	BOS	7.5%	-120	8.5	51%	5.1	2.6	5.8
8.2	Dean Kremer	R	SEA	9.5%	+145	9.5	40%	5.6	2.9	5.0
8.1	Brady Singer	R	PHI	31.8%	+130	9.5	42%	5.5	3.1	5.5
8.0	Michael Wacha	R	WSH	32.0%	-175	8.5	59%	5.4	2.9	4.7
7.6	Logan Allen	L	MIA	6.4%	-145	8.5	58%	5.2	2.9	4.8
7.5	Ben Brown	R	@TOR	6.8%	EVEN	9.5	46%	5.0	2.7	5.0
7.1	Matthew Liberatore	L	COL	21.6%	-205	8.5	55%	4.9	2.5	4.0
6.6	Kyle Freeland	L	@STL	1.0%	+170	8.5	45%	5.2	2.8	4.0
6.6	Emmet Sheehan	R	@LAA	9.0%	-185	9.5	67%	4.4	2.7	5.1
6.1	Jack Leiter	R	ARI	15.8%	-150	8.5	62%	4.7	2.8	4.7
5.4	Janson Junk	R	@CLE	5.8%	+120	8.5	42%	4.8	2.8	3.7
5.2	Mitchell Parker	L	@KC	4.3%	+145	8.5	41%	5.2	3.3	4.2
3.7	Anthony DeSclafani	R	@TEX	0.5%	+125	8.5	38%	3.7	2.4	3.4
3.6	Mike Vasil	R	DET	0.4%	+150	8.5	42%	3.9	2.6	3.5
2.6	Thomas Hatch	R	@NYY	0.0%	+180	9.5	29%	2.5	1.5	2.3
0.7	Victor Mederos	R	LAD	0.0%	+155	9.5	33%	4.7	4.2	3.8

Pitchers to stream on Tuesday

Jacob Lopez is coming off his best start of the season, limiting the Washington Nationals to three hits in 7 2/3 scoreless frames. However, he threw 114 pitches and will be working on just four days of rest, so the Athletics might cut his outing short. Even so, the lefty is in a favorable spot facing a Tampa Bay Rays club that sports the eighth-lowest wOBA and ninth-highest strikeout rate versus left-handers.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have been conservative with Emmet Sheehan's pitch count, keeping it in the high 70s, but he has fanned more than a batter per inning and is limiting traffic, so the right-hander has fantasy allure. After averaging the fourth-fewest runs per game in July, the Dodgers are 12th best in August, so Sheehan's support is on the rise. On Tuesday, Sheehan enjoys a road date with the Los Angeles Angels, who sport the second-highest strikeout rate facing righties.
Michael Wacha is a perfect example of why ground-ball rate should be considered a trait as opposed to a skill. Despite the eighth-lowest ground ball rate among pitchers logging at least 130 innings, his home run rate is the 13th lowest of that group. Clearly aided at home by Kauffman Stadium, all the fly balls staying in the yard yield a low .265 BABIP, which may be a tad lucky but is more about the batted ball distribution. The Kansas City Royals host the Nationals who tote the fifth lowest home run rate versus right-handed pitching.

Today's best matchups for pitchers

Today's worst matchups for pitchers

Hitters to stream on Tuesday

The St. Louis Cardinals' right-handed contingent lines up for a productive evening in a home date against Kyle Freeland and the Colorado Rockies. Freeland has struggled on the road and historically exhibits extreme platoon splits. Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn, Thomas Saggese and Jordan Walker are the chief beneficiaries.
Anthony DeSclafani is coming off a solid outing, but he's 35 years old with a history of giving up home runs, including six this season in just 30 innings. Plus, he's not stretched out and the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen is depleted, thus not equipped to cover a bunch of innings. The result is a favorable setup for the lefty-swinging Texas Rangers, namely Josh Smith, Joc Pederson and Rowdy Tellez.

Today's best matchups for hitters

Today's worst matchups for hitters

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Today's top HR prop bets

Pete Alonso | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $13.24 EV
One reason to bet this: The No. 10 venue in the league for boosting home runs to right-handed hitters, per my projections, is Citi Field.

Trent Grisham | OVER 0.5 HR (+375)
Projection: 24% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.63 EV
One reason to bet this: Grisham has made sizable strides with his Barrel% recently, upping his 15.1% seasonal rate to 21.9% over the past 14 days.

Teoscar Hernandez | OVER 0.5 HR (+425)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.14 EV
One reason to bet this: Angel Stadium has the shortest fence height (on average) in the majors.

Today's top pitcher prop bets

Kyle Freeland | OVER 3.5 K (+105)
Projection: 54% chance of this bet hitting, with a $10.13 EV
One reason to bet this: Freeland was rolling in his most recent start and notched seven strikeouts.

Carlos Rodon | UNDER 6.5 K (+105)
Projection: 53% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.69 EV
One reason to bet this: Rodon's 93.6-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 2-mph decrease from last seasons 95.6-mph mark.

Anthony DeSclafani | OVER 3.5 K (-150)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $8.18 EV
One reason to bet this: Nate Tomlinson, likely to be behind the plate in today's game, profiles as a "pitcher's umpire."

Today's top YRFI/NRFI bets

Twins @ Yankees | YRFI (-115)
Projection: 57% chance of RUN with a $8.26 EV

Tigers @ White Sox | YRFI (+105)
Projection: 50% chance of RUN with a $2.42 EV

Padres @ Giants | YRFI (+115)
Projection: 47% chance of RUN with a $1.89 EV