Fantasy baseball lineup advice and betting tips for Friday

ESPN Fantasy

Aug 21, 2025, 05:00 PM ET

Check out all of our starting pitcher rankings and other lineup selection tools here to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions. MLB betting tips for each day's slate of games will also be added in the morning. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and all fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: All information is accurate as of the time of publication. For updates, including what you might have missed from last night, as well as any breaking news that might impact today's MLB slate, be sure to check out the latest fantasy baseball news.

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STARTING PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Pitchers are ranked in order of their Forecaster/Daily Notes projected fantasy points (FPTS), using ESPN's standard scoring system (2 points per win, minus-2 per loss, 3 per inning, 1 per K, minus-1 apiece per hit or walk allowed, minus-2 per earned run allowed).

T: The pitcher's handedness. OPP: Opposing team. RST%: The pitcher's roster percentage in ESPN leagues. ML: ESPN BET Money Line. O/U: ESPN BET Over/Under for runs scored. For the projected stat line, W% is the team's win probability using ESPN projections, IP is innings pitched, ER is earned runs allowed and K is strikeouts.

If a team is planning on using an "opener" to start their game, but will rely on a "bulk pitcher" to follow him on the mound after 1-2 innings, the bulk pitcher is listed and indicated with an asterisk.

FPTS	Pitcher	T	Opp	Rst%	W%	IP	ER	K
13.2	Blake Snell	L	@SD	89.7%	49%	5.5	1.6	6.3
12.8	Bryan Woo	R	ATH	95.5%	65%	5.7	2.1	5.6
11.5	Max Fried	L	BOS	98.2%	54%	5.8	2.4	6.3
9.9	Shane Bieber	R	@MIA	28.5%	56%	5.4	2.3	5.1
9.6	Nathan Eovaldi	R	CLE	96.2%	58%	5.4	2.6	5.2
9.2	Yu Darvish	R	LAD	13.6%	51%	4.9	2.0	4.6
8.9	Jose Quintana	L	SF	20.6%	62%	5.6	2.8	4.8
8.8	Ryne Nelson	R	CIN	21.2%	50%	5.4	2.8	5.0
8.8	Brayan Bello	R	@NYY	29.1%	46%	5.6	2.7	5.2
8.7	Aaron Civale	R	MIN	3.3%	53%	5.2	2.6	5.2
8.4	Ryan Gusto	R	TOR	0.8%	44%	5.2	2.5	4.7
8.2	Zebby Matthews	R	@CWS	5.2%	47%	4.9	2.7	5.4
8.0	Zack Littell	R	@ARI	33.2%	50%	5.4	2.9	4.6
7.6	Adrian Houser	R	STL	16.7%	57%	5.3	2.6	4.1
6.8	Ryan Bergert	R	@DET	6.1%	53%	4.8	2.6	4.6
6.7	Nolan McLean	R	@ATL	18.1%	42%	5.1	2.9	4.8
6.5	Cade Povich	L	HOU	1.6%	48%	5.2	3.2	4.8
6.4	Taijuan Walker	R	WSH	5.4%	63%	5.2	3.1	4.2
6.4	Casey Mize	R	KC	50.4%	47%	5.0	2.9	4.2
6.3	Miles Mikolas	R	@TB	2.5%	43%	5.3	3.0	3.9
6.3	Ben Brown	R	@LAA	6.5%	59%	4.8	3.0	5.0
5.9	Cade Cavalli	R	@PHI	3.2%	37%	5.0	3.1	5.1
5.9	Lance McCullers Jr.	R	@BAL	2.1%	52%	4.5	2.7	4.6
5.6	Joey Wentz	L	NYM	2.5%	58%	4.7	3.0	4.4
5.4	Luis Morales	R	@SEA	0.5%	35%	4.0	2.1	4.0
5.1	Slade Cecconi	R	@TEX	6.1%	42%	4.9	3.3	4.4
4.6	Braxton Ashcraft	R	COL	0.5%	53%	3.5	2.0	3.2
4.3	Carson Whisenhunt	L	@MIL	0.7%	38%	4.7	3.2	4.4
4.1	Tyler Anderson	L	CHC	5.3%	41%	5.2	3.7	4.2
2.3	Antonio Senzatela	R	@PIT	0.2%	47%	4.6	3.5	3.5

Pitchers to stream on Friday

Since the break, Zebby Matthews has fanned 32 with just five walks in 25 innings. However, he's been victimized by a .364 BABIP and 16.7% HR/FB in that span. This is not to imply that his bloated 5.04 ERA is all bad luck, but his 24.2% K-BB% and 3.10 xFIP in that stretch demonstrates he's pitched better than it appears. The Minnesota Twins have a road date with the Chicago White Sox, giving Matthews a strong chance of improving his ERA, facing the lineup with the second lowest wOBA with a righty on the hill.
Ben Brown has pitched better than the numbers indicate since being called up just after the break. His ERA in 19 2/3 innings is 5.03, but the corresponding 3.23 xFIP is more optimistic as he's been snake bit with a 63.2% left on base mark. Brown was throwing a few more changeups in his latest stint, but he didn't use any in his last outing. Developing a third pitch could be the difference between Brown succeeding as a starter or being transitioned to the bullpen. Friday will be interesting since the Chicago Cubs visit the Los Angeles Angels who sport the third lowest wOBA in the league against changeups.
Jose Quintana is enjoying a strong month with a 2.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over four August starts. He's in a favorable spot to keep rolling when the Milwaukee Brewers host the San Francisco Giants. The veteran lefty squares off with the lineup sporting the lowest wOBA in MLB facing southpaws. Additionally, Quintana was slated to be opposed by Logan Webb, but the Giants are giving their ace an extra day of rest and calling up Carson Whisenhunt for the outing.

Pitchers to avoid on Friday

There is no definitive answer whether to start a pitcher returning from the IL; it's a matter of risk tolerance. On Friday, two historically effective starters are taking the hill after recovering from an injury, including Shane Bieber making his 2025 debut. The Toronto Blue Jays acquired Bieber from the Cleveland Guardians at the trade deadline to fortify their playoff run. The righty has been out since April 2024 as he's been recovering from Tommy John surgery. Bieber recorded a 1.86 ERA and .86 WHIP with 37 strikeouts spanning 29 innings over three levels while on rehab. He pitched seven scoreless innings in his final outing, punching out four with no walks. Even so, he's risky when he takes the hill in loanDepot Park against a pesky Miami Marlins squad.
Lance McCullers Jr. is the other returning hurler as he's been out over a month with a blister. McCullers will toe the rubber in Camden Yards when the Houston Astros face the Baltimore Orioles. McCullers struck out five over five stanzas in his only rehab start, but he's also risky.

Hitters to stream on Friday

Friday presents a rare opportunity to stream Pittsburgh Pirates hitters when the club welcomes Antonio Senzatela and the Colorado Rockies to PNC Park. It's a small sample, but Senzatela's 7.04 road ERA is worse than his 6.97 home mark. The takeaway is Senzatela is worth targeting, regardless of locale. Tommy Pham, Jared Triolo, Jack Suwinski, Spencer Horwitz and Bryan Reynolds are the primary candidates.

Betting tips

Best/worst pitcher/hitter matchups and betting projections are generated by THE BAT X, a system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more. Betting projections for every player, team, and game can be found at EV Analytics.

Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to wager $1.00 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.

Because odds typically do not get set until the previous day's games are completed, betting tips will be added in the morning.